Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Katy Perry's Roar Vs. Lady Gaga's Applause: Who Will Win the Chart War? [Updated August 18th: 10:45 EST]

This week has shaped out to be what will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the biggest stan wars in history. Katy Perry's Roar shall compete head to head with Lady Gaga's Applause. But who will come out on top?

Sales: [Updated 10:45 PM, August 18th]

This is the biggest piece of the formula. Katy Perry's last major debut was 2012's Part of Me, which landed at No.1 with a full week of availability and 411K sales. Exactly one year prior, Lady Gaga's Born This Way launched at No.1 with 3 days of availability and 448K sales. Another major factor in their sales is that both debuted on Grammy weekend, so they each had a few hours of Grammy sales to contribute to their tallies. In 2013 however, neither will have the chance to perform at a major awards ceremony until August 25th, when the VMA's are aired, as both artists will be performing. So, this week will be all debut fueled.

Katy Perry has the advantage over Gaga this year, as Katy's track will get a full week of sales, while Gaga's will get 6 days (Roar made its iTunes debut on a typical monday, while Applause debuted on Tuesday at around 12 AM eastern standard time).

Currently (9 PM Eastern on Friday, August 16th), Roar is still at No.1 on US iTunes, while Gaga is at No.4. On Amazon MP3, the second biggest digital retailer, Katy is No.2 while Gaga is steady at No.5.
Yesterday, Billboard announced that both songs would actually have their sales figures cut, Gaga's cut drastically. They theorized that Katy should be around 450K, while Gaga will land at a shocking 200-225K. Today however, Katy got better news, as her song should be aiming for 525K, Gaga will still be aiming at 225K.

Advantage: Katy Perry

Streaming Services: [Updated at 10:45 PM EST, August 18th]

The biggest difference between Katy and Gaga's pervious singles and this year, is the fact that YouTube is now a part of Billboard tabulations.  Again, Katy's track will get a full cycle, while Gaga's will get 6 days, as the official audio launched at around 8 PM Eastern on Monday. However, the lyric video for Applause was released at 3 PM EST on Wednesday, so this will also add Gaga's lead.

The audio for Applause currently sits at 12.1 million views, with the lyric video at 3.7 million, compared to Katy's lyric video, which is at 12.3 million views. This puts Gaga at around 3.5 million ahead of Katy (not enough to close the two to one deficit for her sales, however).

Advantage: Lady Gaga

Radio: [Updated 10:45 PM, August 18th]

Katy's track debuted at No.34 on Pop Radio, after only two days of radio play. Overall, the radio tracking week will end today, but surprisingly, Gaga has a lead over Perry of about 100 plays on Pop radio. For their previous singles, Gaga's Born This Way launched at No.6 on Radio Songs with 5 days of spins (Friday through Tuesday), while Perry's Part of Me debuted at No.36 on Radio Songs with a full week. The issue that came out Wednesday had 3 days of radio for Perry, and 2 for Gaga. However, the big head to head will be next Wednesday, when sales and streaming are factored in along their airplay.

Roar debuted at No.28 on Billboard's Radio Songs on Wednesday, a lofty entry for any song, even loftier considering it only had 4 days to accumulate the total. Gaga's track just missed the Top 75 according to Billboard. On KWORB's building chart, Roar is now No.15 on the chart, with Applause at No.25. Roar also boasts nearly than 2 times the radio spins as Applause at this point, and Applause won't be serviced to mainstream radio until its original release date of August 19th. Meanwhile, Roar was serviced on time. Perry's advantage only widens here.

Advantage: Katy Perry

Wednesday, August 21st Predictions

So, who will win overall? For me, I'm going to place my bets on Katy. She will get a day of points over Gaga, which is very crucial here. I'm going to say that Katy will sell about 530K while Gaga will sell around 490K, with Katy taking a streaming lead and Gaga taking a radio lead (she's been busy promoting radio today, as she was just on On Air With Ryan Seacrest). For next wednesday on the Hot 100, I'll say Katy will be No.2, while Gaga will be either No.3 or No.4. Both songs however will be unable to dislodge Blurred Lines, which will have a massive radio and probable streaming lead, with sales not going to be far enough behind to warrant a dislodging from the summit.

If you haven't heard either track because you were living under a rock in Botswana, check out the two here:

Roar - Lyric Video (Review here)

Applause - Official Audio (Review here)

Who do you think will win? Comment below and let your voice be heard!

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